Satellite study: US oil and gas methane barely falls despite rising output
Johns Hopkins researchers find no measurable effect of recent US climate laws. But 11% less methane escapes per unit of production than in 2019.
Symbolic image · Photo: SkywalkerPL / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0 (cropped and resized)
Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas industry have barely declined in recent years even as production rose, according to a study led by Johns Hopkins University and published Oct. 13 in Communications Earth & Environment. A team led by doctoral student Ao Chen and associate professor Scot Miller analyzed data from the TROPOMI and GOSAT satellite instruments and used an atmospheric model to trace measured methane concentrations back to sources on the ground (DOI: 10.1038/s43247-026-04039-0). The figures are thus model-based estimates derived from satellite measurements.
The sector emitted 9.3 to 10.4 million metric tons a year, the study found. Emissions fell by 0.58 million tons from 2019 to 2023 (range 0.30 to 0.96), then rose by 0.21 million tons from 2023 to 2024, with a range of minus 0.06 to plus 0.53. Over the whole period to 2024 emissions dropped 3.5% (1.6 to 6.2) while production grew 8.5%. Methane intensity, or emissions per unit of output, fell 11.1% (9.3 to 13.6). The ranges reflect the spread across eight model setups.
The authors attribute the decline mainly to technical and operational improvements, new pipelines and existing regulations. In Texas, the largest emitter, emissions fell 14%. "We do not find any evidence that a flurry of federal legislation had an impact on emissions," Miller said. The satellite-based estimates for 2019–2022 were also about 17% higher on average than the official Environmental Protection Agency inventory. The researchers say they cannot test what would have happened without the laws.