Fed decides on rates today – pause expected, but no end to hikes
The U.S. central bank announces its decision at 2 p.m. ET. Inflation of 3.7% keeps another increase in December on the table, one week before the midterm elections.
Symbolic image · Photo: Federalreserve / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain (cropped and resized)
The U.S. Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The two-day meeting began on Tuesday; the decision is due at 2 p.m. Eastern time, followed by a news conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The benchmark rate currently stands in a range of 3.75% to 4% after the Fed unanimously raised it by 25 basis points in September. In a Reuters poll, 94 of 100 economists expect rates to remain unchanged this time.
Pressure is coming from inflation: according to September data, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.6% from the previous month, lifting the annual rate to 3.7%. At the same time the labor market is weakening – only 29,000 jobs were added in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. All 100 economists polled by Reuters expect a rate hike in December. Rabobank says several members of the rate-setting committee could again vote for an immediate increase.
Former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder expects a "hawkish pause" – holding rates while signaling readiness to raise them again. Warsh has so far deliberately avoided signaling future moves. It is the Fed's seventh policy meeting of the year and comes days before the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. The final meeting of 2026 is scheduled for Dec. 8-9.