Methane in Europe: measurement-based estimate slightly above official reports

The European Commission on Oct. 12 published a draft implementing regulation with uniform templates that energy-sector operators will use to report their methane emissions to authorities. It is based on the EU Methane Regulation 2024/1787, and the data are to feed into the Commission's methane transparency database. Citizens and businesses can submit feedback until Nov. 6; adoption is planned for the end of 2026.

How much methane Europe actually emits was estimated from a combination of measurements and modelling (inverse modelling) by a team led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Sept. 1, 2026). The researchers analysed concentrations measured at 46 ground stations and used an atmospheric transport model to trace them back to their sources. For the EU-27 plus the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland, they found an average of 23.3 ± 2.3 million tonnes of methane a year for 2017 to 2022. The human-caused share averaged 17.6 million tonnes, about 3 percent above official reports to the U.N. climate convention and 4 percent above the EDGAR emissions database, and fell by about 0.3 million tonnes a year.

The study found higher values than the initial estimates for the Netherlands and Germany and lower ones for Romania and Italy; emissions from agriculture increased. The authors stress that the results depend on assumptions about the spatial distribution of emissions and on the density of the monitoring network. Globally, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Global Methane Tracker 2026, about 35 percent of human-caused methane emissions come from oil, gas and coal, roughly 124 million tonnes a year. The IEA estimates that about 70 percent of that could be avoided with existing technology, and about 30 percent at no net cost.