IMF lifts forecast: Germany to grow 1.3% in 2026, up from 0.7%
The International Monetary Fund sees the German economy as far more resilient than in the summer. It now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, but says risks remain high.
Symbolic image · Photo: International Monetary Fund / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain (cropped and resized)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sharply raised its forecast for Germany in its World Economic Outlook, presented at its annual meetings in Bangkok. It now expects growth of 1.3% in 2026, up from 0.7% in July. For 2027 the Fund projects 1.1%, compared with 1.0% previously. That puts it in line with the German government, which published its own figures last week. Economy Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) attributes about two-thirds of the upturn to state investment in infrastructure and defence and one-third to exports, according to dpa-AFX.
For the world economy, the IMF expects growth of 3.1% in 2026 (previously 3.0%) and an unchanged 3.4% in 2027. The euro area forecast for 2026 was raised to 1.1% (July: 0.9%), with 1.2% expected in 2027. The United States is projected to grow an unchanged 2.3% in 2026 and China 4.5%, according to South Korean broadcaster SBS. The report says the global economy is once again showing resilience but remains unbalanced, SBS reported.
The Fund sees risks as mainly skewed to the downside. A sharp sell-off in technology stocks, should expectations for artificial intelligence disappoint, could slow growth. Persistent energy price shocks and weak consumer confidence weigh on the euro area, while poorer, energy-importing countries are hardest hit by the energy price shock following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. For Germany, the IMF cautioned that exports were partly boosted by stockpiling amid global supply shortages, which may not last.