IMF cuts Bulgaria growth forecast to 2.6 percent, sees higher inflation
In its new World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects 2026 inflation of 4.9 percent instead of 3.8 percent. The current account deficit is set to double to 8 percent of GDP.
Symbolic image · Photo: International Monetary Fund / Wikimedia Commons, Public domain (cropped and resized)
The International Monetary Fund now expects Bulgaria's economy to grow by only 2.6 percent in 2026, according to its World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday (Oct. 13). In April it had forecast 2.8 percent. For 2027, however, the IMF raised its forecast from 2.5 to 2.7 percent, the BTA news agency reported.
The inflation estimate is significantly higher: consumer prices are expected to rise by an average of 4.9 percent in 2026 (April forecast: 3.8 percent) and 4.8 percent in 2027 (3.7 percent). The Fund sees the current account deficit at 8.0 percent of GDP in 2026 instead of 4.0 percent, and at 6.6 percent in 2027. Unemployment is expected to remain stable at 3.4 and 3.3 percent.
Other institutions are partly more optimistic on growth: the Finance Ministry expects 3.0 percent for 2026, the EBRD 2.7 percent and the World Bank, like the IMF, 2.6 percent. According to BTA, the inflation figures are only partly comparable, as the IMF uses the consumer price index while the Finance Ministry uses the harmonized index (HICP).