Housing bubble index: Zurich and Tokyo at highest risk, Frankfurt cools

Where are homes most overvalued worldwide? According to the Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 by Swiss bank UBS (published on 22 September 2026), Zurich has the highest bubble risk among the 23 cities studied, followed by Tokyo. UBS sees elevated risk in Miami, Dubai, Seoul, Geneva and Lisbon, and low risk in Paris, London, New York, San Francisco and São Paulo.

UBS rates the two German cities in the index, Frankfurt and Munich, as moderate risk. Frankfurt's risk score saw one of the sharpest declines in Europe: real, inflation-adjusted prices fell further in 2026 and are almost 25 percent below their 2021 peak, while rents keep rising. In Munich, real prices declined more slowly. According to UBS, the cost of owning there is substantially higher than renting – as it is in Hong Kong and Sydney.

The study records real price gains of around ten percent within a year in Seoul, Lisbon, Madrid and Hong Kong, and declines of a similar size in Vancouver and Toronto. In most cities, according to UBS, the annual cost of mortgage interest and maintenance for a new 60-square-metre home exceeds 40 percent of a highly skilled worker's gross income. Matthias Holzhey of UBS expects higher-for-longer financing costs to cap price gains in the near term.