IMF study: Asia is ageing – Thailand risks growing old before it grows rich

At the start of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, the International Monetary Fund on Monday was presenting its study "Shaping the Future of Asia". After opening remarks by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the Asia and Pacific Department, was scheduled to present the findings. Per-capita income in the region more than doubled between 1990 and 2023, while extreme poverty fell from over 25% to below 5% of the population. Asia's share of global growth rose from about a quarter in the 1990s to around two-thirds today.

But the population is ageing fast: the share of people aged 65 and over is projected to rise from about 11% in 2025 to around 20% in 2050. Ageing could reduce the region's annual growth by about 0.3 percentage points by 2050. Artificial intelligence, by contrast, could add 0.2 to 0.8 points a year in Asia's emerging and developing economies and 0.5 to 1 point in advanced ones. Thailand risks "becoming old before reaching the income levels of advanced economies", the IMF warns. Its next challenge is extending pension coverage to informal and part-time earners.