Canelo the clear favourite: what the numbers say before the Mbilli fight
Bookmakers have Canelo well ahead against Mbilli, but ESPN stats highlight Mbilli's huge punch output. Terence Crawford gives the champion little hope, calling his style 'tailor made' for Canelo.
Archive image · Photo: Presidencia de la República Mexicana / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0 (cropped and resized)
Ahead of Saturday's WBC super middleweight title fight in Riyadh, Saúl 'Canelo' Álvarez is a clear -330 favourite, according to ESPN – a $330 bet returns $100 profit if Canelo wins. A points win for the Mexican is priced at -135. The longest odds are on champion Christian Mbilli winning inside the first three rounds (+10,000).
ESPN's numbers point to a high pace: Mbilli averaged 78 punches thrown per round in his last five fights, Álvarez 35.1 over his last 13. Both land power punches well above the division average of 36.1 percent – Álvarez 44.9 percent, Mbilli 46.1 percent. Both are fighting for the first time in 13 months, and neither has been knocked down in a combined 98 pro fights. Álvarez has already had 28 major title fights (25-3), while Mbilli has never fought for a full world title.
Terence Crawford, who dethroned Álvarez in September 2025, sees Mbilli at a disadvantage. "Styles make fights and Mbilli's style is tailor made for Canelo," he told DAZN, according to Boxing News. "Mbilli can't do nothing but press Canelo."