Two drinks a day: study puts lifetime risk of alcohol-related death at 1 in 25

People who drink about two alcoholic beverages a day over their lifetime face roughly a 1 in 25 risk of dying from alcohol-related causes, according to a new analysis. The Alcohol Intake and Health Study was published in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs, ScienceDaily reported on Oct. 25, 2026. The lead author is Sinead George and the senior author Kevin Shield of the University of Toronto, who leads a World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization collaborating centre in addiction and mental health. The U.S. government originally commissioned the research to inform the national dietary guidelines.

The team reviewed more than 7,200 publications on alcohol-related diseases and injuries and combined the risk estimates with large health datasets from the U.S. and Canada. Outcomes included premature death, cancers of the esophagus, mouth and breast, cardiovascular and liver disease, and injuries. About 14 drinks a week were associated with the 1 in 25 lifetime risk, while up to 7 drinks a week were linked to only small increases in risk for most conditions. Above one drink a day, risk rose more markedly for both men and women. "We did not observe a significant protective effect of alcohol on health at any level of consumption," Shield said.

Possible benefits of small amounts for ischemic heart disease and stroke are outweighed by the risk of cancer and other chronic diseases even at 7 drinks a week, the authors said. Earlier U.S. guidance advised no more than two drinks a day for men and one for women; the current guidelines only say to limit alcohol, without a number. Co-author Timothy Naimi of the University of Victoria criticized them for providing no quantitative framework. Limitations: the figures describe population-level risk and do not translate directly to individuals, whose lifestyle, genetics and drinking patterns also matter. A possible link to pancreatic cancer is still being studied, the report said.