IMF forecast: Bangladesh overtakes India in per capita income
According to the IMF, Bangladesh's per capita GDP will be $2,886 in 2026 versus India's $2,749. India stays ahead in purchasing power terms and is set to lead again from 2029.
Symbolic image · Photo: Fahad Faisal / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped and resized)
Bangladesh is overtaking India in per capita income, at least according to nominal figures from the International Monetary Fund. According to the IMF's October World Economic Outlook, analyzed by Al Jazeera, Bangladesh's per capita GDP will be $2,886 in 2026, compared with India's $2,749. In terms of total output, however, India's $4.15 trillion economy is roughly eight times the size of Bangladesh's $506.4 billion. Adjusted for purchasing power, India remains ahead at $12,998 per capita versus $10,884 for Bangladesh.
Experts credit the garment industry, remittances from workers abroad and more women joining the workforce. The garment sector is worth about $38 billion and accounts for more than 80% of export earnings. Economist Santosh Mehrotra points to steady growth of about 6% a year alongside slowing population growth. Manufacturing's share of gross value added rose from 16.6% in 2014 to 22% in 2025.
The forecast also sees Bangladesh ahead in 2027, with India moving back in front in 2029. There are risks: Bangladesh imports 95% of its oil and LNG, much of it from the Middle East, and the Iran war has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. For 2026, the IMF expects 8.7% inflation and 3.6% growth in Bangladesh, compared with 5% and 7% in India. Per capita figures also mask inequality, and exchange-rate swings can change the rankings.