Brazil votes: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck heading into runoff
Some 158.7 million eligible voters choose today between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Final polls show Bolsonaro narrowly ahead, within the margin of error.
Archive image · Photo: Ricardo Stuckert/Palácio do Planalto / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0 (cropped and resized)
Brazil decides its presidency in a runoff today. Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, faces Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Brasília time, or noon to 9 p.m. German winter time. About 158.7 million people are registered to vote, according to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE). In the first round on Oct. 4, Bolsonaro led with 47.03 percent to Lula’s 45.16 percent.
The final polls point to an extremely tight race. Datafolha put Bolsonaro at 51 percent of valid votes and Lula at 49 percent after 4,050 interviews on Oct. 23 and 24, with a margin of error of two points. Quaest, commissioned by Globo, also found 51 to 49 percent after 3,702 interviews and called it a technical tie. Because votes are counted electronically, the winner is usually known within a few hours of polls closing.
The campaign was marked by sharp polarization. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced in 2025 to 27 years in prison over an alleged coup plot and is under house arrest, according to the Council on Foreign Relations; his son has said that if he wins he will seek an amnesty for him and others convicted, or a pardon if necessary. Lula, for his part, views U.S. tariffs as political interference. Shortly before the vote, the TSE gave Meta 24 hours to prove it was treating both campaigns equally. The electoral court plans to release first results from about 8 p.m. Brasília time (midnight German time).