Brazil heads into runoff with polls showing Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied

Ahead of Brazil’s presidential runoff on Sunday, Oct. 25, the race is wide open. A Datafolha poll published on Thursday evening puts President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% each of valid votes; 2,154 people were surveyed and the margin of error is two points. Other polls released on Friday show one or the other narrowly ahead, such as Real Time Big Data at 52% to 48% for Bolsonaro and Vox Brasil at 50.6% to 49.4% for Lula. In the first round, Bolsonaro finished two points ahead of Lula with 47%. A final televised debate on the Globo network was scheduled for Friday evening.

Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth term, has launched a series of government measures during the campaign, according to The Associated Press. A 15% increase in the Bolsa Família welfare payments for nearly 50 million people took effect in election week. Other measures include a 30-day suspension of federal taxes on gasoline, credit relief for small businesses and a bill for free public transport on weekends. Congress also approved cutting the workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a pay cut, a measure Bolsonaro also endorsed late in the campaign. Critics call it a classic populist tool, AP reported, while Lula has said change must not mean depriving people of their rights.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump. Both camps have asked the Superior Electoral Court to disqualify the other. Flávio Bolsonaro accuses Lula of abuse of power through government messages on an official WhatsApp account, while Lula’s team accuses Meta of favoring Bolsonaro, which the company denies. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The runoff winner will take office on Jan. 5, 2027.