Oil falls below $104 – IEA warns diesel will stay tight into 2027
Brent fell by more than 2 dollars on Thursday. The International Energy Agency sees no all-clear, however: on-land stocks are at their lowest since at least 2016.
Symbolic image · Photo: VynedJ / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0 (cropped and resized)
Oil prices eased on Thursday. Brent crude for December delivery fell by more than 2 dollars to 103.97 dollars a barrel in the morning, while US benchmark WTI dropped by around 1 dollar to 94.10 dollars. Traders weighed attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz against the International Energy Agency's (IEA) new monthly report and reports of a further concession by US President Donald Trump to Russia.
In its report published on Wednesday, the IEA expects global oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day in 2026 to 102.4 million barrels – due to restricted product availability, soaring fuel prices and a weaker economy. About a quarter of the decline is accounted for by diesel. Supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day in September to 102.3 million, led by the Gulf producers, but the agency calls the recovery fragile because of renewed attacks in the Gulf.
The diesel market remains particularly tight: benchmark prices hit records above 200 dollars a barrel in September and, according to the IEA, remain nearly double the price of crude and their pre-crisis levels. Global on-land oil stocks have fallen to their lowest level since at least 2016, and according to the IEA the lost diesel and gasoil inventories are unlikely to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. For Europe, observers say, this means a risk that diesel will become more expensive again in the coming weeks.