Analysis: China's clean-tech exports save as much CO2 as Brazil emits
According to research institute CREA, solar panels, wind turbines, EVs and batteries from China will avoid around 450 million tonnes of CO2 outside the country in 2026 – an estimate with several unknowns.
Symbolic image · Photo: Antti Lipponen / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0 (cropped and resized)
China's exports of clean technologies will cut CO2 emissions in the rest of the world by around 450 million tonnes per year this year. That is the calculation of the Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA); lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta published the analysis on October 29 in Carbon Brief. This is roughly equivalent to Brazil's annual fossil emissions and almost 2 percent of global emissions outside China. In 2025, the figure was around 370 million tonnes.
Over the full lifetime of the equipment exported in 2026, CREA expects around 8.4 billion tonnes of avoided CO2 – as much as the US and India together emit in a year. In the first three quarters, exports of electric cars and heavy electric vehicles rose by 61 percent, wind turbines by 45, batteries by 39 and solar modules by 22 percent. Around 76 percent of the lifetime avoided emissions fall in the Global South. According to the analysis, the emissions from manufacturing in China are paid back after about six months.
This is an estimate, not a measurement and not a peer-reviewed study. The fourth quarter is extrapolated from the first three; the result depends on assumptions about equipment lifetimes, the carbon intensity of power grids and, for electric two-wheelers, how many car trips they actually replace – a key uncertainty, according to the author. The analysis comes ahead of the COP31 climate conference in Türkiye in November.