EY forecasts Bulgarian growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027
The consultancy sees Bulgaria growing well above the euro-area average. But inflation is not expected to ease to 2.5% until 2028 and could hit 7% in an adverse scenario.
Symbolic image · Photo: Bjoertvedt / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped and resized)
Consultancy EY expects Bulgaria's economy to grow 2.9% this year. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.5% next year before easing to 3.0% in 2028, according to its October forecast received by state news agency BTA on Thursday. For 2027, EY sees 2.9% in an adverse scenario and 3.7% in an optimistic one, meaning growth stays positive in all cases.
The inflation picture is less benign. Annual inflation in Bulgaria stood at 5.6% in September. EY expects an average of 5.4% for 2026, 4.4% for 2027 and only 2.5% for 2028. Should an energy price shock prove prolonged, inflation could rise to as much as 7% in 2027 under the adverse scenario; in the optimistic case it would be 3.1%.
For the euro area, EY forecasts growth of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, and 1.2% for Germany next year. The economists expect one more ECB rate increase following September's hikes. EY named the Middle East conflict and energy prices as the main uncertainties, along with trade fragmentation and fiscal pressures.