LMU study: three-quarters of reforestation potential faces social barriers
Planting forests is seen as an important CO2 sink. A study in One Earth finds that about three-quarters of the previously estimated removal potential lies where social and institutional barriers are high.
Symbolic image · Photo: Ben Hemmings / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 (cropped and resized)
About three-quarters of the previously estimated potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere through afforestation and reforestation could face major social and institutional barriers. That is the conclusion of a team at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU) led by geographer Wenkai Bao and Professor Julia Pongratz, published in the journal One Earth (released on 16 October, press release dated 19 October). Tropical countries, where much of the potential lies, are particularly affected, according to Bao.
The researchers combined evidence from real-world case studies with a machine-learning analysis of extensive global datasets on social, institutional and economic conditions. The study is therefore an assessment of constraints, not a measurement of new forest area. The press release gives no uncertainty range for the three-quarters share.
According to LMU, afforestation and reforestation have so far expanded forest cover by more than 300 million hectares and over the past decade removed an estimated 2.2 billion tonnes of CO2 a year. Reaching greenhouse gas neutrality would require at least tripling global CO2 removal by 2050. Credible strategies must therefore also take account of local livelihoods, rights and institutions, Bao said. Planting forests can only complement, not replace, broader climate action, Pongratz stressed.