Quantum computing and world trade: WTO diplomats hear encryption warning
At a briefing in Geneva, experts warned that quantum computers could break today's encryption within three to five years, with consequences for customs, payments and e-signatures.
Archive image · Photo: United States Mission Geneva / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0 (cropped and resized)
Trade diplomats at the World Trade Organization (WTO) in Geneva were briefed on quantum technology last week in a one-hour "Quantum 101" session. It was organized by the permanent missions of Israel, Singapore and Switzerland, The Quantum Insider reported. ETH physicist Klaus Ensslin, president of the Swiss National Quantum Commission, cited estimates of three to five years until a quantum computer could break today's encryption. Quantum computers would not replace classical computers, however.
Investor Miriam Shtilman-Lavsovski (Tal Ventures) pointed out that trade relies on encryption for electronic signatures, letters of credit, customs and payments: "Trade is built on trust, and trust is built on encryption." She warned of the "harvest now, decrypt later" principle and of a "quantum divide" between countries. She said governments have pledged more than $60 billion for quantum technology, 75% of it from five countries; 90% of quantum patents come from 11 countries.
Kwok Yan Lam of Nanyang Technological University in Singapore stressed that trade needs a common definition of "quantum-safe" to connect to banking systems. Andy Leaver, CEO of security company Arqit, pointed to a U.S. executive order from June 2026 under which key federal systems are to switch to post-quantum cryptography by December 2030. Swiss Deputy Ambassador to the WTO Hervé Lohr named services, technical barriers to trade and supply chain security as possible topics for the WTO.